By Lisa Baertlein

(Reuters) – Global trade is forecast to grow, albeit less robustly, as the world reacts to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, Germany’s DHL Group CEO Tobias Meyer told Reuters on Wednesday.

“That outlook is mainly based on the 75% of global trade that does not touch the U.S.,” said Meyer, who noted that segment is seeing positive momentum.

The global goods trade is expected to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029, a modestly faster pace than during the preceding decade, according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 prepared by delivery firm and New York University’s Stern School of Business.

DHL, the parcel shipment arm of Germany’s Deutsche Post AG, is one of the world’s largest package delivery firms. The company and U.S.-based rivals United Parcel Service and FedEx are viewed as economic bellwethers because they serve a broad swath of business sectors in countries around the globe.

India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are forecast to lead in trade growth from 2024 to 2029, authors of the DHL Trade Atlas said.

Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace, they said.

The United States is the world’s largest goods importer and the second-largest exporter. The U.S. share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9% – enough for U.S. policies to have substantial effects on other countries but not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade, the authors said.

(Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)